Archive for Financial Skills

贪婪的地产商

May 25, 2008 at 2:12 am · Filed under Financial Skills

1.

我今天在网上看到一篇报道《地产商转嫁风险 上市公司高价买单》，非常震惊。

我知道，有人利用监管漏洞，将证券市场当作提款机，榨取大众的财富。但是，我没有想到，这种交易已经上升到了一种骇人的高度，动辄就是几十亿，甚至上百亿，而且非常普遍，“大家都在玩”。

报道中，举出了十几家上市公司的例子。最典型的就是中关村（000931），让我们看看这种交易是怎么玩的。

2.

中国证券市场的一个主要特点，就是资产的高溢价。

所谓“高溢价”，就是说现货市场上1元的商品，一旦证券化，价格就会翻好几个倍。

举例来说，假定我购买了100万元的机器设备，注册成立了一家公司。然后，我以每股1元的面值，发行了100万股的股票。请问这时股票的市场价格应该是多少？

理论上讲，如果资产本身不是垄断性资产（不含知识产权和商誉），那么股票的市价应该就在1元附近，不应该差得太多，因为虚拟资产的价值应该与实物资产对应。但是，在中国就不是这样，1元的净资产往往要卖到5元左右。事实上，2007年3月底时，中国证券市场平均市净率——股价与每股净资产的比值——是5.55倍。

这就是说，100万元的机器设备，一旦被证券化，价格就立刻可以上升到555万元！

如果我是企业主，我会怎么办？很简单，就是不停地将实物资产往股份公司里塞（一般通过资产收购和企业并购的形式），同时增发股票，这样就可以不费吹灰之力，获得惊人的利润。

金融资产价格虚高的现象，在发展中国家普遍存在。原因有多方面，与金融体制不完善（又称“金融抑制”）有关。这里就不涉及了。

3.

现在来看一个令人叹为观止的例子。

一度排名“中国首富”、国美电器的老板黄光裕，取得上市公司中关村的控股权之后，宣布将自己的北京鹏润地产控股有限公司（下称“鹏润地产”）100%的股权注入中关村(000931)。

鹏润地产的净资产只有1.14亿元，猜猜看，黄光裕开出的卖价是多少？

答案是180亿元！

因为这个溢价率实在太高了，为了平息外界的议论，黄光裕又紧急向鹏润地产突击增资19.5亿元。即使按照增资后的净资产计算，溢价幅度也将高达160亿元左右。

换言之，中关村掏出180亿元，购买了只有20.6亿元净资产的鹏润地产（其中19.5亿元还是被临时并入的）。中间的差价160亿元，来自上市公司的全体股东，最终落入黄光裕个人的口袋。

在这个过程中，实物资产本身其实一点都没有变，只是由股份公司购买了它的所有权。这样一来，轻轻松松就创造出了上百亿的差价。天下还有比这更简单的发财方法吗？

4.

上市公司向控股股东高溢价收购资产，早已是普遍的做法。许多亿万富翁就是这样诞生的。

最近一二年，高价收购房地产项目比较流行。因为房地产项目利润高，所以证券市场也欢迎这样做。中关村宣布高价收购鹏润地产以后，居然还涨停了，这是多么奇怪的世界啊！

下面是报道中提到的“高价收购地产项目的上市公司”（不完全列表）。

上市公司　　　　　　收购价　　实际净资产价值

*ST金泰(600385)　　246.65亿元　　81.29亿元

宁波富达(600724)　　66亿元　　　17.84亿元

ST高新(000628)　　　18.18亿元　 7.80亿元

丰华股份(600615)　　 76.012亿元　12.323亿元

ST科健(000035)　　　22.68亿元　　6.46亿元

华盛达(600687)　　　14.77亿元　　3.59亿元

5.

对我来说，我只是特别感叹其中的不公平。

房价的暴涨，使得少数地产商暴富，而使得底层人民的生活水平至少倒退了5年。当地产泡沫即将破裂的时候，地产商却又将这些项目高价转让给上市公司，一旦将来房价下跌，就将由全体股东来承担，其中大多数都是跟风的中小投资者。

进一步说，房地产项目都是靠银行贷款支持。大幅度的房价下跌，必然造成银行危机，甚至是金融危机。最终还是要靠国库买单，也就是由全体纳税人来承担。

这就是中国：利益都归于少数人，苦难则由大多数人来承担。

（完）

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Behavioral Economics on Why We Buy What We Buy

May 21, 2008 at 7:04 pm · Filed under Financial Skills

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Money
is more about mind than it is about math. Our financial decisions are
often based on psychology and emotion rather than on pure numbers.
Nearly everyone understands intellectually that credit card debt is
bad, for example, but for millions of people, this understanding isn’t
enough.

A newish group of researchers dubbed behavioral economists have been exploring the gulf between financially optimal behavior and the things people actually do. One reason, said economist Dan Ariely in yesterday’s London Guardian, is sheer habit:

Orthodox economists don’t recognize habits. “They assume
ordinary people do a constant cost-benefit analysis on everything they
do. But actually, after you reach a decision, you say, ‘That’s the end
of it!’— and just continue.” Which is one reason why more competitors
entering an industry does not immediately prompt customers to [switch
brands].

The article describes other ways in which psychology plays a role in our financial decisions:

  • Increased choice makes us less able to choose. This is true
    in the cereal aisle, but it’s also true when shopping for cars, or for
    a mortgage. It’s easier to evaluate three products than it is to
    evaluate thirty. Sometimes choice isn’t a good thing.
  • Our habits affect our habits. We are creatures of inertia.
    If we’re accustomed to buying a certain type or brand of product, we’ll
    continue to buy it even if there might be a better choice. The “known”
    is familiar and comfortable.
  • We don’t actually know the value of the things we buy.
    Rather than evaluate how much a new television is worth to us, for
    example, we allow ourselves to be guided by manufacturer’s pricing and
    sale information. If we buy a new TV for $1,000 — marked down from
    $1,300! — we tell ourselves we scored a deal, even if that television
    may not give us $1,000 in value. (This is why Your Money or Your Life’s concept of trading life energy for Stuff is so eye-opening to many people.)
  • People cannot always figure out what is in their best interest.
    “Money and risk are abstract, complex things,” Ariely says. Because
    it’s difficult to know which option is best, retailers can nudge people
    into purchases. (And perhaps the reverse is possible — maybe people can
    also be nudged into making smart financial decisions, like opening
    retirement accounts or paying off debt.)
  • We’re swayed by things that do not matter. The article
    describes how Ariely — a trained economist — spent more on a car just
    because it came with free oil changes, a decision he regrets. Recently
    at All Financial Matters, JLP told the story of a woman who traded in her gas-guzzler for that gets better mileage. JLP ran the numbers, though, and concluded that this was a decision that only made sense on an emotional level.
  • We tend to throw good money after bad. Though it’s not
    mentioned in this article, the sunk-cost fallacy is another common
    mental mistake. Just because you’ve spent money on something doesn’t
    mean you should continue to spend money on it. It doesn’t even mean you
    should keep the item. What matters is the item’s future value to you,
    not how much you’ve spent on it.

If you’re in debt or have spending problems, take time to examine
your habits. Do you let emotion affect your financial decisions? Do you
buy things you soon regret? Do you tend to make risky investments? If
so, consider researching behavioral economics. Understanding why you think the way you do is an important step to changing your habits.

I used to succumb to many of these mindsets, too; I’m sure that I often still do. Lately however, I’ve found myself with a different sort of problem: It’s almost as if I’m scared to spend money.
I’ve finally reached a point in my life where I could afford to allow
myself small indulgences, but I’m afraid to do so. Am I becoming a
miser? I wonder what the behavioral economists would say.

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The Hidden Costs of Stuff

November 22, 2007 at 2:00 pm · Filed under Financial Skills

This is a guest post from Amanda, a Colorado tech writer and an activist for children with congenital heart disease.

For a couple of years I’ve been learning the “tips and tricks” to saving money. I’ve read about freezing your credit cards, paying yourself first, the “latte factor,” etc., but the most important thing I’ve learned, I learned from myself: to change the way I live, I had to change the way I think.

To save money, I had to save myself from my inner- consumer. I had to learn the true relationship between money and stuff. I didn’t have much money or stuff growing up, and once I had it, I couldn’t stop wasting money to get more stuff. I thought, “It’s only money.” But that ’s a lie consumerists tell to themselves.

Money represents many things:

* Money is time. It’s the time you spend to earn it and the sacrifices you make to get more: the time you spend in school to get a better job, the weekend work you do to get ahead, and all the other things you miss out on.
* Money is power. It enables you say yes or no to opportunities or demands. It lets you opt in or opt out of positive or negative situations. Having money lets you retire at 55; not having it keeps you working indefinitely.
* Money is security. If you’ve ever been truly poor, just knowing that you’ll still have a roof over your head even during a hard time is worth its weight in gold. Money in the bank can give you peace of mind.

Stuff is sneaky. Stuff can give you a false sense of time, power, and security.

Stuff will not enhance the quality of your time, unless you have only the stuff you need to do the activities you enjoy and no more. Yet, so many people (myself included) accumulate more stuff than they can ever use even if they lived forever. Last year, about two weeks before she died, my grandma sat in a nursing home realizing she would never go back to her house. She lamented a craft room jammed full of stuff that she would never use. Too much stuff makes you feel like you won’t ever have enough time. Too much stuff makes you feel time-poor.

Stuff might make you feel powerful, like when you buy a really fancy TV or brand new furniture. But if you buy it on credit, or wipe out your savings, it actually weakens you. If you have debt or no savings, what happens when a true emergency happens? You are powerless. Stuff can steal your power.

Stuff can be emotional and disorienting. I know a wonderful lady who is adored by everyone, but she can’t get rid of her stuff. It makes her feel secure. But having 26 clear glass vases that have no monetary value, but not having room for your breakfast cereal, is probably not providing you the right kind of security.

Taking control of your environment — determining what stays based wholly on what makes you happy because it is useful, beautiful, and has meaning to you — leads to confidence. If you can have the confidence to make decisions, to keep your space and your mind free of clutter, then you should feel more secure in who you are, not the stuff you have. Both of my grandparents died last year, and we had to clean out that craft-room and a tiny house overrun with stuff. My grandparents were two of the least happy people I knew; coincidentally, they probably had more stuff than anyone I know.

I’ve learned to choose my stuff wisely, and to get rid of stuff that drains my energy or steals my power. I had to change my mindset before I could do that. Not so long ago, a walk-in closet only three-quarters full would make me want to spend more money to get more stuff. Now it makes me happy, because I know exactly what I have, and can find it and use it. Once you can change your mindset about money and stuff, you begin to learn that less stuff leads not only to more money, but also to more time, more security, and more power.

Here are some examples from my own life:

* No cell phone = no one calling me when I’m busy, no life-endangering car-talks
* Fewer books = opportunity to take my kids to the library and save for their college
* No crafty hobbies I won’t get around to = no guilt about all that stuff I’m not doing
* No fast food lunches = no fatty food that doesn’t even taste good, and better health for me
* No knick-knack collections = cleaner house and less time spent dusting stuff I don’t really want
* No fancy cable package = less time wasted being a couch potato & longer life expectancy because I’m up off my butt using my time and money wisely

Remember that just because I choose to live without cable or a cell phone or certain hobbies doesn’t mean that everyone should. Find the things you can’t live without and jettison the rest. A life with less stuff can be liberating — the money you save is just a bonus.

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The 7 Energy Sinkholes (and How to Avoid Them)

October 12, 2007 at 11:06 am · Filed under Financial Skills ·Tagged

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Energy sinkholes are situations that repeatedly drain your energy and stress you out. There are plenty of good reasons to invest your energy, so don’t waste your attention on a sinkhole. Unfortunately, it is often hard to see sinkholes since they rarely cause a drain all at once. Instead they slowly leech away at your lifeforce until your stressed, depressed and apathetic.

The best way to get out of these sinkholes is to get a routine. Having a preplanned method to handle these problems can keep your mind focused on more important things. Here are the big seven that may be stealing from you right now:

1 – Disorganization

Having to constantly find documents, forgetting commitments and appointments puts is a huge sinkhole. The solution out of this is simply to create a system for organizing and routinely tidy it up. You may have implemented a few systems, but here are some areas you might consider giving a clean-up:

* Computer hard-drive
* Calendar
* To-Do Lists
* Project Task Lists
* Office/Desk/Home
* Filing System
* Closets

2 – Poor Diet and Lack of Exercise

Exercising isn’t just to look good on the beach. Staying fit keeps your energy levels high. You can be slim and still be drained because you aren’t fit, so don’t use the scale as the measurement. Here are some things you might want to consider to get out of this energy trap:

1. Make a Routine – Find a gym partner, class or workout time that you can exercise at least 3-4 times per week. I’ve experimented with different amounts and found six days a week works best for me. If you are unsure how to start, just try it for thirty days to see how it goes.
2. Replace Foods One at a Time – Don’t try to overhaul your eating habits overnight. They’ve been established over years, so they can’t change in a snap. I recommend switching out one unhealthy food type for a month before making more changes. When you take it gradually it is far easier to stick with long-term.
3. Time Your Meals – The best way to eat would probably be 5-6 smaller meals spread throughout the day. Since this isn’t a reality for most people, a decent alternative is simply to time your meals so your blood sugar levels remain steady throughout the day. This will ensure you aren’t starving for some parts and fatigued from a big meal in others.

3 – Problem Contacts

We all have those few customers, clients and friends that cause a disproportionate amount of our stress. I say the best solution is simply to fire them. Cutting down on people who drain your energy can help you focus more productively on the rest. If a transaction is fair, then both parties should have the ability to opt out if it becomes too much of a hassle.

4 – Focusing on Your Weaknesses

My definition of a weakness is anything you aren’t interested in becoming skilled at. If you aren’t keen on improving, you can’t build strengths and any talent you do have will degrade. Don’t try to do everything and outsource the tasks that don’t fit within your strengths. Virtual Assistants and freelancers can deliver a much higher quality than you could on your own, and often their fees are less than the cost of your time.

5 – Squeaky Hinges

A squeaky hinge is any piece of technology that works, but has irritating side-effects. This could mean a computer that is too slow to run the programs you need. A dishwasher that doesn’t get all the food off. Or an alarm clock that isn’t loud enough.

If the solution to a squeaky hinge is cheap, fix it immediately. The costs will soon outweigh any replacement expenses. If the solution is expensive, write down the total cost and keep track of any wasted time/money due to the problem. Keep track of squeaks will make you aware of what the total cost is, and whether a replacement is warranted.

6 – Blog/E-Mail/Facebook Addiction

Information addiction can be a huge drain to your energy. I love using blogs, e-mail and social networking sites to get the latest news and keep in touch. But that love can quickly turn into an obsession if you aren’t careful. Soon you’re like the rat frantically pushing the lever for more cocaine doses as you hit Stumble one… more… time…

My solution was to designate a time for information inflow and keep it restricted to that time. Once per day is all I allow myself to read new RSS feeds, incoming e-mail and Facebook. For other stats and random surfing I limit myself to once per week. The result is more energy and almost no impact on communication.

7 – Pleasing People

Don’t waste your time trying to please the people around you. This isn’t an excuse to be an inconsiderate jerk, but put a high value on your time. Learn to say no to people who don’t show respect for your time. Helping other people is great, but it’s better to focus on serving the greatest good than simply appealing to the whims of your friends and family.

Don’t waste your energies trying to fit others expectations. Set your own dreams, standards and ambitions and make them your highest priority. When you’re nearing your end you’ll likely regret more the sacrifices you made to your individuality than how pleased your parents were of you.

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10 Ways to Build the Habit of Saving Money

October 11, 2007 at 9:03 am · Filed under Financial Skills

Save Money

How much do you save? I hope you put money aside. You don’t? Neither did I until a few years ago. How do you become a money saver? I’ll first tell you how you don’t: Not by using discipline or willpower. Discipline and willpower only work in the short-term.

What works in the long-term is understanding your spending habits. Once you understand, you can change by building new habits. That’s how you become a money saver. And that’s the topic of this post — ten ways to build the habit of saving money.

1. Set a Goal. What do you want?

  • Do you want to have your own place?
  • Do you want to be financially independent?
  • Do you want to get out of debt?

A goal will give you a reason to save money. If you have multiple desires, start with one goal. Once achieved, set a second one.

2. Set a Deadline. Set a date by which you want your goal achieved. Write both on a piece of paper. Put it somewhere you can look at it multiple times a day — your nightstand, for example. Look at your goal and deadline on waking and before sleeping. It will remind you why you’re saving money.

3. Track Expenses. You probably have an idea of how much you spend, but unless you keep track of every cent, that idea is inaccurate at best. Here’s a simple way to track your expenses. You probably carry a phone wherever you go. Note everything you spend in your calendar. When you get home, copy everything to your personal finance tool. At the end of the month you’ll know exactly how much money you’ve spent and on what.

4. Analyze Costs. Check where your money goes. Reduce and remove costs. The first time you analyze your expenses can be shocking. The more the better. This is your first wake up call.

5. Make a Budget. Calculate how much money you need for:

  • Food
  • Rent
  • Bills
  • Clothes
  • Leisure
  • Etc

Remove costs from income. Now you know how much you can save each month. Even if it’s not much, it’s better than nothing.

6. Pay Yourself First. Make the first bill you pay each month the one to your savings account. Just like all your other bills, there’s no way around. You must pay it month after month, unless you’re in debt. Then the rule becomes: “Pay Your Debts First”.

7. Earn More Save More. Save a fixed percentage of your income. This way, as your income goes up, so will your savings. 20% is a good start. You can’t? Then you’re living beyond your means. Time to wake up.

8. Think Saving. If you have money left at the end of the month: save it. You don’t need to spend every cent earned. It’s okay to buy things. But make sure you really need them — don’t spend just for the sake of spending.

9. Wake Up. I wrote in the introduction that you need to understand your spending habits. You need to understand why you buy things. Do you buy things:

  • To impress people?
  • To be part of the group?
  • To fill other’s expectations?

Next time you buy something, ask yourself: Why am I buying this? What are my real motives? Don’t judge. Just notice.

It takes time, but once you get it, it’s eye-opening. Your life will be simpler and you’ll avoid many financial headaches. Trying to keep the pace with others is a never-ending game, one you can’t win. Wake up.

10. Read Get Rich Slowly. Your environment influences your personality, and thus your habits. If you want to build the habit of saving money, surround yourself with people who save money. Get Rich Slowly is a good place to start. Subscribe. Read it on a daily basis. J.D.’s tips will become your second nature. You’ll become a money saver in no time.

Bonus Tip: Write this next to your goal and deadline: If I don’t save now, I’ll never have money. No matter how much I earn.

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